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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
15 Drill-Crazy Countries That Are Rapidly Running Out Of Oil
Date: Monday, 26 April, 2010, 7:46 AM
Thirty countries produce over 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
While some petro powers could keep it up for a century, many will run dry in the next 20 years.The lucky ones may increase reserves through exploration and technology. But as we know in America, doing so can be hard. The final option will be growing dependence on imports.
15. Malaysia -- 15 years remaining
Barrels per day: 727,200 Proved reserves: 4,000,000,000 Key figure: Dato' Shamsul Azhar Abbas, CEO of Petronas Outlook: Declining reserves don't matter. State-owned Petronas has locked up oil fields around Asia and invested heavily in domestic and internation natural gas.
14. Algeria -- 15 years remaining
Barrels per day: 2,180,000 Proved reserves: 12,200,000,000 Key figure: Chakib Khelil, OPEC oil minister Outlook: Algeria's energy minister claims ample reserves, but his push to limit production at OPEC suggests otherwise. That said, Algeria has two secret weapons: a booming natural gas industry and large unexplored regions. State-owned Sonatrach discovered two fields just this week.
13. Brazil -- 14 years remaining
Barrels per day: 2,422,000 Proved reserves: 12,620,000,000 Key figure: José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, CEO of Petrobras Outlook: The recently discovered Tupi field could boost reserves to 18 billion barrels -- a much better outlook. An increase in reserves, however, would be matched by a surge in production.Already state and local governments are squabbling over revenue. Rio de Janeiro is counting on an oil windfall to fund the 2016 Olympics.
12. Angola -- 12 years remaining
Barrels per day: 2,015,000 Proved reserves: 9,040,000,000 Key figure: Jose Maria Botelho, OPEC oil minister Outlook: Angola's actual reserves could be closer to 13 billion barrels. Oil minister Jose Maria Botelho must feel confident in reserves, because he's calling for OPEC to increase production and bring down prices.
11. China -- 12 years remaining
Barrels per day: 3,795,000 Proved reserves: 16,000,000,000 Key figure: Jiang Jiemin, chairman of PetroChina Outlook: China is exhausting resources and having scare luck with exploration of its interior. But state-owned companies are expanding production abroad. They're also using vast capital reserves to fund partnerships in Russia, South America, and Africa. If liquidity doesn't end any time soon, China could lock up reserves for consumption and profit.
10. Mexico -- 11 years remaining
Barrels per day: 2,601,000 Proved reserves: 10,500,000,000 Key figure: Juan José Suárez Coppel, CEO of Pemex Outlook: Pemex is burning through the giant Cantarell oil field with no equal reserves in sight. The collapse of oil production means the loss of 40% of Mexico's tax revenue, according to FT. Deutsche Bank analyst Ryan Todd blames the problem on Mexico's Congress: "With Pemex constantly locked in a battle to secure sufficient funding and a reasonable fiscal regime, the company cannot plan on a long-term horizon with great certainty, handicapping its ability to manage declines."
9. Indonesia -- 10 years remaining
Barrels per day: 1,051,000 Proved reserves: 3,990,000,000 Key figure: Karen Agustiawan, CEO of Pertamina Outlook: Production is in steady decline as old fields run dry and new fields are nowhere to be seen. The government is allowing more competition to state-owned Pertamina, in hopes that private or foreign companies will have more luck.
8. Argentina -- 9 years remaining
Barrels per day: 792,300 Proved reserves: 2,616,000,000 Key figure: Julio de Vido, Minister of Planning and Public Works Outlook: Argentina has failed to explore offshore oil on its long coastline. This was evident when the UK tried to grab at oil fields of the Falkland Islands, which Christina Fernandez de Kirchner's government had never explored. The good thing about inefficiency, though, is that Argentina probably has new fields out there somewhere.
7. Australia -- 7 years remaining
Barrels per day: 586,400 Proved reserves: 1,500,000,000 Key figure: Martin Ferguson, Minister of Energy & Resources Outlook: Field discoveries in the late nineties won't make up for declining production at older fields. Australia is relying more and more on oil imports. But it won't be too painful, as the government already relies on private and foreign companies for production.
6. Norway -- 7 years remaining
Barrels per day: 2,466,000 Proved reserves: 6,680,000,000 Key figure: Helge Lund, CEO of Statoil Outlook: The world's sixth-largest oil exporter is not finding any new oil fields. But they are discovering lots of natural gas, which could be an even bigger industry for state-owned Statoil. Norway is now the fifth-biggest LNG producer.
5. USA -- 7 years remaining
Image: The White House
Barrels per day: 8,514,000 Proved reserves: 21,320,000,000 Key figure: President Barack Obama Outlook: Exploring in Alaska and in the lower 48 could increase reserves six-fold, according to the Department of the Interior. New technology could be another breakthrough. But in the near future, increasing imports are the only fix for a supply crisis.
4. Colombia -- 6 years remaining
Barrels per day: 670,000 Proved reserves: 1,355,000,000 Key figure: Javier Gutiérrez Pemberthy, CEO of Ecopetrol Outlook: Colombia has increased production by allowing complete foreign ownership of upstream oil companies. Although facing a reserves precipice, industry analysts expect exploration to yield big discoveries. Large portions of the country are unexplored and contain geological structures similar to oil-rich Venezuela.
3. United Kingdom -- 6 years remaining
Barrels per day: 1,584,000 Proved reserves: 3,410,000,000 Key figure: Ed Miliband, Secretary of Energy & Climate Change Outlook: The UK exports more oil than it imports, but that's about to change. As large fields dry up, major producers like BP are selling assets to smaller operators. The government is investing heavily in nuclear power to keep the lights on.
2. India -- 4 years remaining
Barrels per day: 3,720,000 Proved reserves: 5,625,000,000 Key figure: R. S. Sharma, CEO of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Outlook: India increased production 320% in 2009, while proved reserves did not increase. As production trails demand, the country is on track to become the fourth-largest oil importer by 2025. Deregulation of the state-owned industry may be a wash, with faster production offsetting discoveries.
1. Thailand -- 1 year remaining
Barrels per day: 1,073,000 Proved reserves: 441,000,000 Key figure: Prasert Bunsumpun, CEO of PTT Outlook: Domestic production is living on borrowed time thanks to recent discoveries. Within 1-2 years it may fall to nil, and Thailand will depend entirely on imports. State-owned PTT is moving heavily into natural gas.